* = my opinion
The year 2020 has been filled with many surprises and upsets, and this election cycle is no different. Both parties have faced their fair share of challenges; both have claimed victories across all areas of our government.
Although Democrats maintain control of the House of Representatives, Republicans were able to flip nine seats in the House as of November 12. In Florida, Republican Maria E. Salazar defeated Democrat Donna Shalala. In Miami-Dade, notable for increasing Republican support among Cuban American voters, Republican Carlos Gimenez defeated Mucarsel-Powell. Yvette Herrell, Stephanie Bice, and Nancy Mace flipped seats for the Republicans in New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, respectively. Another notable race lies in New York’s 11th congressional district, where Republican challenger Nicole Malliotakis is likely to oust Democratic incumbent Max Rose after all votes are counted.
*Aside from Democrats keeping control, the biggest winners of the House have been Republican women.
Democrats picked up one seat in the Senate so far; however, control of the Senate rests in the hands of voters in Georgia. In Arizona’s 2nd congressional district, Democrat Mark Kelly defeated Republican Martha McSally. All eyes are on two races in Georgia going to runoff elections in January. Under Georgia law, a Senate candidate must obtain at least a 50% majority to be declared the winner. The two candidates obtaining the most votes will have a second chance to win in runoffs. Consequently, Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler seek to defend their seats against their respective Democrat challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. The count currently stands at 50-48 in favor of Republicans, if adding in the two Independent Senators that caucus with the Democrats. As a president-elect promising unity between the American people and both sides of the aisle, Biden will have the chance to prove himself by working through the challenges of what is likely to be a divided Congress.
*Republicans and Senate-majority leader Mitch McConnell are the biggest winners of the Senate.
Many pollsters’ predictions of a “blue wave”, a repeat of the Democratic Party’s success from the 2018 midterm elections, did not materialize this time around. In fact, this year has produced incredibly tight races for the House, Senate, and presidency that cast doubt on the credibility of the entire polling industry. For example, the polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight had Biden up an average of 8 points nationally over Trump. As of November 12, Biden leads Trump by 3.4 points nationally. The aggregator also reported a Biden lead of about 5+ points in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, where the actual results ended up being much closer than what most pollsters had forecasted. Pollsters have faced challenges that have carried over from the 2016 elections.
A lack of reliable data has plagued pollsters for years. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, sampling errors have skewed polls heavily to favor Democratic candidates. Non response to phone calls, online surveys, and text surveys has increased the difficulty of capturing more responses from Trump supporters. Apart from a declining response rate, surveys are not capturing enough responses from key groups including non-college educated voters, the changing demographics of Republican supporters, and first-time voters. In addition, record voter turnout among first-time voters that lack a voting history added challenges predicting voter behavior.
*While the pollsters correctly predicted the likely winner of the presidential race this year, they are still the biggest losers of this election cycle.
Regardless of how you feel about voting this election cycle, the voter is the biggest winner. Joe Biden and Donald Trump have already received more votes than any other candidates in U.S. history, and the votes are still being counted. Joe Biden is currently sitting around 77.7 million votes and Donald Trump at about 72.5 million votes. This passion revolving around this election has inspired millions of citizens, especially the younger generation, to express their right to vote. The percentage turnout of the voting-eligible population is projected to reach at least 66.8%, the highest result since 1900. People have made their voices heard this year. Democracy prevailed, and let’s hope that this turnout continues well into the future.
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