2024 year is the biggest year, and test, for democracy since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is not just an election year; it is THE election year. 64 countries representing 49% of the world’s population will go to the poles in major elections and almost all are facing a choice between an authoritarian leaning candidate or a liberal defending the standing values of the state. From America to India, Indonesia to South Africa and back to the entire continent of Europe voters are facing a choice that will define the next century of global history. The elections form a pattern in most nations to which an authoritarian is being taken on by a union of moderates from both the centrist right and centrist left. Incumbents such as Narendra Modi in India who have dominated their nations and leavers of electoral power face what seems to be the last vestiges of a centrist moderate movement which he will most likely destroy. Donald Trump in America has dominated the media landscape and despite calls to execute top officials and allow him to break the constitution he is leading against the poster grandpa of moderate democrats (granted maybe two decades to old) in Joe Biden. This level of election alignment has never been seen in this century of a world dominated by democracy, it might however, be its final death rattle.
The election cycle has taken off with mixed result for democracy. Taiwan’s anti-China pro-independence leader won re-election largely due to the opposition vote being split by two pro-Beijing candidates. On the other hand, Bangladesh remains in the grip of an increasingly anti-democracy party with an election marred by political violence and repression. Moderate liberals face a daunting challenge of defending a system that appears to most to be broken, leaving billions behind, however they defend if from something potentially far worse. This year presents some golden opportunities to turn back the tide of populism however the odds do not look like they are in the peoples favor.
2024 will define if this decade of decline in the democratic movement globally can be reversed, if the democratic backsliding that has defined the worlds leading democracies can be halted or if the fleeting experiment of the liberal democratic order will crumble, not from outside forces, but from political malaise and polarization. Apathy and distrust are at an all-time global high along side anger and distrust. One must fear if these are the forces deciding the fate of billions of people.
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