On October 4th, the northern region of Japan had an unwelcomed, early morning wake up alarm as they were informed that an intermediate - range missile from North Korea was flying over the region. For 22 minutes, the people of Japan waited in suspense as the missile flew overhead, not knowing if they were in imminent danger or not. Thankfully, the missile didn’t hit Japan, but instead kept going for 2000 miles east of Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean. While little damage came from the launch of this missile, it has caught the attention of many major governments, as it is the first time North Korea has launched a missile over Japan since September 15th, 2017. The missile also was unique in that it flew 2,800 miles total, marking it as the longest distance a North Korean weapon has ever traveled, according to officials in Tokyo and Seoul.
This begs the question: How are countries in the region, and the US reacting? Firstly, officials from the US, Japan, and South Korea have all spoken out against the missile launch. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the launch was “an outrageous act”, and President Biden, in cooperation with U.S officials, similarly denounced the act, demanding that North Korea “refrain from further unlawful and destabilizing acts”. President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea insisted that North Korea’s provocations “would not be ignored” and that Pyongyang would “have to pay a price” for their actions.
While these words of condemnation may be powerful, the US and South Korea have also performed some military drills in recent days to intimidate North Korea into not trying anything further. Specifically, four South Korean F-15K jets and four US Air Force F-16 jets conducted a joint drill, in which they fired two bombs off the west coast of South Korea on the afternoon of the 4th to demonstrate to North Korea their ability to destroy North Korean missile launch sites with precision attacks. Additionally, South Korea released footage on Saturday that illustrated how South Korea could use a ballistic missile to penetrate the underground bunkers where Kim Jong-Un and other North Korean officials would most likely stay in times of war. Ultimately it is not clear if North Korea is at all intimidated by these drills, and there are some signs they may not be.
One sign that the military intimidation tactic may not be working comes from South Korea’s spy agency. According to the Wall Street Journal, the South Korean spy agency told lawmakers in the US several weeks ago that Pyongyang has completed preparations for its first nuclear test since 2017, which will most likely occur “between the end of China’s coming National Congress meetings next month and the U.S. midterm elections in November”. This suggests that Pyongyang, and North Korea more generally, is going to keep acting defiantly against the interests of security in the east. This idea is also supported by Kim Jong Un’s statement last month that he would never abandon nuclear weapons to counter the US, calling the nuclearization of North Korea “irreversible”.
Another issue with using military intimidation against North Korea is that some believe that it is what provoked North Korea’s escalation in the first place. While it would not explain why North Korea was doing tests earlier in the year, it may explain why North Korea recently started escalating by increasing their number of missile tests. The reasoning for this theory is explained by Motoko Rich and Choe Sang-Hun from the New York Times, in which they note that the US, Japan, and South Korea in September conducted the first trilateral “anti-submarine and missile tracking” exercises since 2017. Thus, it can be inferred that the juxtaposition of the U.S. and its allies resuming military demonstrations, along with North Korea’s escalation of military demonstrations is no accident. Moreover, if North Korea felt threatened by the drills at all, it would explain their sudden desire, after not doing any tests since May, to resume their missile tests to deter any threat from the U.S and its allies. This theory, that military demonstrations to intimidate North Korea would lead to more harmful escalation than to de-escalation, also holds weight in historical precedence. Both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times describe how in 2017, when Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury”, North Korea escalated with a nuclear test instead of backing down.
Though if military intimidation won’t stop North Korea’s escalation, then the question arises: what will? While there are several theories, the short and popular answer is: it will be something quieter and it will involve more economic strategy. Several experts from the region, such as Noboru Yamaguchi, a professor of international relations at the International University of Japan in Niigata and a retired lieutenant general in Japan’s army, say that the US, Japan, and South Korea should take a quieter approach as increasing military hostility would be “doing what North Korea wants us to do”. The “quiet” techniques of resolution would likely involve more sanctions, isolating North Korea from the important trade networks it needs to survive. Many analysts believe this technique would work, particularly because it worked before in 2017. In 2017, when tensions were getting hot between the US and North Korea, economic punishments such as sanctions were imposed upon North Korea, crippling their economy severely enough that they ceased to escalate further until now, due to an understanding that the consequences of doing so would be immense. However, while economic measures worked in the past there is some question as to how effective they would be now. One factor that has changed since 2017 is that North Korea now has more support from China and Russia economically. While this might not be enough to stunt the strength of US sanctions, it certainly makes officials less confident that economic measures would be enough.
Ultimately, the situation in North Korea, and how the US and its allies should respond to it to properly deter further escalation is a bit of a question mark. That said, there are many reasons to remain optimistic. Firstly, President Biden and the Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken have emphasized to foreign officials in Japan and South Korea that they remain committed to providing an “ironclad” defense to the region. This is encouraging, as along with the recent drills, it can be presumed that the US and its allies are prepared to act in military defense if necessary. Additionally, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has said that the missile test doesn’t pose a threat to any U.S. personnel, territory, or allies, further suggesting that the U.S. government has things under control.
Trusting the optimism of the U.S. government may be difficult for some however, and for those people I offer a different set of logic which may make you optimistic. Many experts believe that North Korea’s intent behind its escalation is to gain negotiating leverage with the other countries in the Indo-Pacific, and to gain negotiating leverage with the U.S. Under this common presumption, it can be presumed that North Korea has nothing to gain by using their nuclear power or missiles to attack another country, as they would simply lose their biggest bargaining chip. Thus, while it may be scary to live during a time of some escalation in the Indo-Pacific it’s important to realize that things are not as bleak as they may seem.
APA Citations
Rich, M., & Sang-Hun, C. (2022, October 3). North Korea Fires Powerful Missile, Using Old
Playbook in a New World. nytimes.com. Retrieved October 9, 2022, from
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/world/asia/japan-north-korea-missile.html
Yoon, D. (2022, October 4). North Korea Launches Missile Over Japan. WSJ. Retrieved
October 9, 2022, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-launches-missile-over-
japan-11664841929?page=1
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