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Joseph Enea

Election on Track for Historic Voter Turnout

The 2020 United States presidential election takes place in less than a week, yet millions of Americans have already cast their ballots. As of October 24, at least 56 million Americans have voted early. This number represents about 20% of the voting-eligible population, and it surpasses the total number of early votes cast for the 2016 election. Interest in the upcoming election is at an all-time high.


The U.S. Elections Project predicts that voter turnout will surpass 62%, comprising a total of 150 million people. In addition, it projects about 30 million more Americans will have cast their votes before Election Day. These figures mean that voter turnout could potentially reach its highest level in over a century.


Several states are shattering voter turnout records in early voting. As of October 23, 40.4% of registered voters in Texas have voted early. This percentage is several points below the total early voter turnout percentage from the 2016 election; however, Texans have had an extra week to vote early this year. Texas remains on track to experience its highest total voter turnout this century with the state surpassing 76% of its total 2016 voter turnout as of last weekend. Multiple states including Georgia, New Jersey, and North Carolina have reported current voter turnouts exceeding 50% of their total 2016 turnouts. It comes as no surprise which factors have influenced Americans to vote early.


In the midst of a global pandemic, states have granted voters greater accessibility to mail-in ballots and early in-person voting. The majority of states have allowed voters to cite COVID-19 as an excuse to vote by mail. This option acts as a reasonable method of voting for people that are concerned about spreading or contracting the coronavirus at polling stations. The ease of restrictions on absentee ballots also calms fears of a low voter turnout. States have extended early voting in person to reduce overcrowding and wait times at polling stations, which require voters to wear facial coverings and adhere to social distancing guidelines. About two-thirds of early voters have utilized mail-in ballots as of October 24; the other third has opted to vote in person.


Mail-in voting may display an interesting partisan divide this election cycle. Michael McDonald, the political science professor running the U.S. Elections Project, finds that mail-in ballots are being returned at a much higher rate among Democrats in some key battleground states. In Pennsylvania, the return rate for Democrats stands at 55.3% compared to 39.9% for both Republicans and Independent voters as of October 23. This gap in return rates is greater in Florida, where Republicans contribute to less than a third of the mail-in ballots returned. A recent study conducted by the University of California, San Diego titled “COVID-19 Opens a Partisan Gap on Voting by Mail” suggests that signals from partisan elites in both parties contributed to the partisan divide concerning mail-in ballots. However, the study does not conclude that this will influence the outcome of the election.


Early voting may shed some light on potential implications of the 2020 election. With millions of Americans having cast their votes before the final presidential debate last Thursday night, Biden and Trump have to campaign for a smaller group of undecided voters. According to Nielsen, an audience measurement system, the final presidential debate experienced 13% lower viewership compared to the final debate for the U.S. 2016 election. Findings from fivethirtyeight.com indicate that about 5 percent of voters remained undecided as of October 24. The same website reported that about 13 percent of voters were undecided after the third presidential debate in 2016. These statistics imply that the final presidential debate between Biden and Trump will have less of an impact on voters’ decisions than their first presidential debate did.


It will be interesting to see how the rest of this election cycle will play out. More early voting records are likely to be broken as we draw closer to Election Day. If you have not voted already, please be sure to visit vote.org to identify your nearest polling station or to check the latest state deadlines.

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